From the Punter Trenches (5 March 2018)


By Tanya Rawat

“Intelligence is something we are born with. Thinking is a skill that must be learned.- Edward de Bono”

From the start of the year I have been bullish JPY and all my calls have come to fruition. I foresaw it breaching a key level viz. 108 which it did. Next I saw it breach 105 purely on
a technical basis as after it breached the key 108 level, it was unable to garner bids and find a support. 105 was its next landing spot. 102.58 is the next key support which is the 50 Quarterly Simple Moving Average.

I see the Nikkei retracing upto its 5 Year Simple Moving Average, close to 12k levels.

For the Dollar Index (DXY Index) the 90.13 is a key support. It is the 100 Quarterly Simple Moving Average. If it breaches that, we can expect it to touch 86 handle. Continue to remain Bullish Dollar. EUR vs USD has a monthly resistance at 1.23 levels, see downside risks. Remain Bearish Euro.

Nasdaq consolidating at current levels and so far has maintained not to breach 5 Month Simple Moving Average which acts like its support. SPX we spoke last time could see a retracement owing to US 10Y Tsy coming close to breaching a secular downtrend saw a 2% down move. 2679 key support level is 20 Week Simple Moving Average. It breached it on Friday, but managed to gain ground and close at 2690 levels. 2690 is a key resistance level from December 2017.

Under Spx, Info tech sector consolidates around 1200 levels for the past 3 months unable to breach those levels. Financials as we know is yoyo-ing around 500 levels for the past 3 months as well. Both of which explains SPX yoyo-ing around 2800 levels. Utilities looking rather weak.

Gold back to last week’s levels, but as I said, irrespective of Dollar strength, see gains in this commodity. Since 2017 it seems to be moving in an envelope where the 100 Month Simple Moving Average seems to be acting like a resistance for the trend and 20 Month Simple Moving Average as a support. While Oil I still remain bearish as it still remains below its 5 Month Simple Moving Average of $65pb.

Questions? Comments? Contact me at

Copyright © 2018 Tanya Rawat. All rights reserved. These materials are proprietary to Tanya Rawat and may not be reproduced, modified, transmitted, transferred or distributed in any form without the prior written consent of the author Tanya Rawat.