From the Punter Trenches (26 February 2018)

By Tanya Rawat

Back from a long break. All my calls re Dollar Index, Gold, EURUSD, USDJPY and Oil have come to fruition. I expected Yen strength and expected it to touch 106 handle which it has done. Similarly the Dollar continues to strengthen with next target being 100/102. It has unsuccessfully tried to breach to 88 handle (DXY Index) couple of times on the downside which happens to be a key monthly support. As a corollary, Brent Crude also hasn’t had any luck breaching $68.40/barrel on the upside which again is a key monthly resistance. Be warned, any sudden and sustained strength in the Dollar is likely to spell trouble for Oil. While Gold should statistically move in the opposite direction to the Dollar and any strength in the latter could spell trouble for the commodity, I remain Bullish Gold primarily owing to it acting a pure inflation hedge as inflation picks up in the US and the Fed develops a more hawkish rhetoric. All this spells trouble for the Euro which I remain bearish on and see plenty of downside.

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