Oompa Loompa (Market Wrap- June 7th)

Coverage: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa


Author: Tanya Rawat

“Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-do,
I have a perfect puzzle for you,
Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-dee,
If you are wise, you’ll listen to me”

Remember this song from the Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory; a movie based on the book Charlie and the Chocolate Factory by Roald Dahl.

It’s loopy this week as our markets take cue from Sepp’s blatter (pun intended!), US NFP numbers positively exceeded market expectations, OPEC decided to keep oil production unchanged at 30 million barrels per day and the Turkish pre-election caused nausea last week.

As predicted, Dollar continued to strengthen with the Dollar Index (DXY Index) edging up to 96 levels and the US 10Y Tsy at 2.40 levels. Yesterday’s (June 7th 2015) Turkish election results showed the incumbent AKP losing the ability to form a single party government after 13 years and another party viz. HDP gaining more than 10% in the election and now set to be a credible opposition force if not forming their own coalition party. AKP will have to team up with MHP as the other parties viz. CHP and HDP are not keen in any association with AKP. Amidst this pantomime and US 10Y Tsy edging higher, we expect Borsa Istanbul to flounder vehemently this week as well as the Lira is bound to nosedive. Boo!

Like I have mentioned in the last few doodles, GCC markets are struggling to break past resistance levels, amidst thin volume and lack of news as we approach the holy month of Ramadan. DFM, Tadawul and Egypt opened lower at the start of the week while Qatar is expected to remain pressured till someone decides to play ball (pun intended again!).

Naira remained stable at 198/$ while the Rand lost ~2.83% with 5Y lows at 12.63/$. This is hurting the JALSH Index akin to other emerging market indices.

“Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-da
If you’re not greedy, you will go far
You will live in happiness too
Like the Oompa Loompa doom-pa-dee-do”

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